制高点-第24部分
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GONZALO SANCHEZ DE LOZADA: It's like a tiger; hyperinflation: If you don't kill it and you only have one bullet; it'll eat you。
孔塞洛。桑切斯。洛塞塔(Gonzalo Sanchez De Lozada):恶性通货膨胀就像是一只老虎,你仅有一颗子弹,如果你射不死它的话,它便会吃了你。
NARRATOR: The root of the problem was government finances。 The government was spending 30 times more than it received in taxes。
旁白:问题的症结在于政府的财政赤字,政府的开支是其税收收入的30倍之多。
Across the continent; Latin America's unpetitive economies had been piling up debt。 In the 1970s; a massive hike in world oil prices left foreign banks awash with petrodollars。
拉丁美洲大陆国家经济普遍缺乏竞争力,这使得它们背负了沉重的债务负担。70年代,世界石油价格的飞涨使得许多外国银行充斥了太多的石油美元。
ARNOLD HARBERGER: So here were the international banks with billions of dollars and nowhere to earn interest on it。 They discovered Latin America。
阿诺德。哈勃(Arnold Harberger):许多国际银行闲置着大量的美元,找不到投资去处,他们发现了拉丁美洲。
GONZALO SANCHEZ DE LOZADA: We were offered unreasonable amounts of money。 These banks who were very unwise in their lending policy came to the happy conclusion that countries don't go broke。 It's true; but sometimes they don't pay。
孔塞洛。桑切斯。洛塞塔(Gonzalo Sanchez De Lozada):这些大银行给我们提供了过多的贷款,银行在制定他们的贷款政策时是很不明智的,他们兴致盎然地认为国家是不可能破产的。是的,国家是不可能破产,可是有时候国家也可能赖债的。
MOISES NAIM: Guess what? One day; these countries could no longer afford to repay the debts。
莫伊斯。尼曼(Moises Naim):想想是什么情况吧,有一天,这些国家再也无力偿还这些债务了。
NARRATOR: In 1982 a financial crisis in Mexico triggered a chain reaction that caused the 1980s to be known as Latin America's ";lost decade";。
旁白:1982年,墨西哥的金融危机引发了一系列的连锁反应,从而导致了我们常说的:80年代是拉丁美洲“失去的10年”。
JOSEPH STANISLAW; Author; manding Heights: Bolivia was probably the most severe case of how things had gone wrong in Latin America。 For decades they just printed money。 They collected no taxes in the country。 If you can't collect taxes; you've got to make the money up somehow; so they just printed it。
《制高点》(manding Heights)作者约瑟夫。斯坦利斯诺(Joseph Stanislaw):拉丁美洲的情况很糟糕,而###的情况可能是最为严重的,在几十年中,他们仅仅是在不断地印钞票,没有税收收入。而如果你收不上税,你可能就不得得想法子凑钱,所以他们便印钞票。
GONZALO SANCHEZ DE LOZADA: Bolivia was a basket case。 We were considered hopeless。 We had help from nobody。 We were totally alone。 The World Bank had closed its office; the IMF had pulled out its representative; and the American government and other friendly nations wouldn't answer the telephones。
孔塞洛。桑切斯。洛塞塔(Gonzalo Sanchez De Lozada):###陷进了漩涡,我们被认为毫无希望了,没有人来帮助我们,我们完全靠自己在那里挣扎。世界银行关闭了他们的办事处,国际货币基金组织撤走了他们的代表,美国政府和其它一些原来友好的国家都不接我们的电话。
Onscreen title: Harvard University; USA
字幕标题:美国,哈佛大学
NARRATOR: At 29; economist Jeff Sachs had just bee one of Harvard's youngest full professors ever。
旁白:29岁的年轻经济学家杰裴里。萨克斯(Jeff Sachs)刚刚成为哈佛大学的一名最年轻的全职终生教授。
JEFFREY SACHS: In 1985; some former students sent me a note asking whether I would be ready to e to a meeting with a group of visiting Bolivians。
杰裴里。萨克斯(Jeffrey Sachs):1985年,几个我以前的学生问我准不准备见一帮来自###的访问学者。
NARRATOR: The Bolivians had e to Harvard to take part in a seminar on the hyperinflation that was ravaging their country。
旁白:###人是到哈佛来参加一个有关他们国家恶性通货膨胀的研讨会的。
JEFFREY SACHS: I was absolutely fascinated; made a few observations。 Somebody in the back of the room piped up and said; ";Well; if you think you know what to do; you e to La Paz。";
杰裴里。萨克斯(Jeffrey Sachs):我被这个问题完全吸引了,做了一些观察并发了言。坐在房间后排的一个人大声喊道:“好吧,要是你知道怎么办,你就到拉巴斯来吧。”
When I got to La Paz in July 1985; the inflation rate was about 60;000 percent。 It was an extraordinary and terrifying thing to see; actually。 It was a society at the edge of the precipice。
当我1985年7月来到拉巴斯时,通货膨胀率大概为60,000%,这真是太不正常太可怕了,整个社会处在悬崖边缘,行将崩溃。
NARRATOR: Bolivia's politicians were paralyzed。 Only one man seemed to know what to do。
旁白:###的政治家们麻木了,只有一个人似乎知道该怎么办。
JEFFREY SACHS: I met a man at a cocktail party one of the evenings at work。 I didn't know him at all。 I introduced myself。 He said; ";What are you doing?"; I said; ";Oh; I'm writing an economic plan for the next government。";
杰裴里。萨克斯(Jeffrey Sachs):一天晚上,我在一次工作之后的鸡尾酒会上遇到一个人,我根本就不认识这个人。我向他作了自我介绍,他问我:“你在干嘛?”我回答说:“哦,我正在为下一任政府制定经济计划。”
GONZALO SANCHEZ DE LOZADA: And I said; ";I'm very; very pleased that you're studying this; because we're going to beat these guys; and you can e and work for us。"; So they all laughed。
孔塞洛。桑切斯。洛塞塔(Gonzalo Sanchez De Lozada):我当时说:“非常高兴看到你在研究这些事情,因为我们将战胜这些家伙,你可以来和我们一起干。”他们都笑了。
JEFFREY SACHS: He said: ";Oh; that's very interesting。 What do you have in mind?"; And I described a few elements; basically how to stop hyperinflation。 And he said: ";No; no; you have to go much beyond that。 You don't understand。 We need so much more。 You're just going on the surface。 This country needs a plete overhaul。 We've got to get out of the mess that we're in。"; I wasn't sure whether he was provoking me; whether he was kidding; whether he was sober; whether he knew what he was doing。 It turned out that this was Goni; Gonzalo Sanchez de Lozada …… a genius。
杰裴里。萨克斯(Jeffrey Sachs):他说:“哦,这非常有意思,那你有什么想法?”于是我谈了一下我的看法,主要是有关如何制止恶性通货膨胀的。他说:“不,不,你必须还要考虑其他的事情,你不明白,我们不仅仅需要制止通货膨胀,其它的很多问题也急需解决,你还只是涉及到问题的皮毛。这个国家需要一次彻底的修整,我们要度过我们正在经历的各种难关。”我当时不明白他是否是有意戏弄我,是否是在跟我开玩笑,是否是认真的,是否知道他在干什么,后来才知道,他就是孔塞洛。桑切斯。洛塞塔——一个天才。
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Chapter 11: Shock Therapy Applied '4:48'
第十一章: 休克疗法的应用
NARRATOR: Goni's party did win the election; and he became minister of planning。 He told the president that Bolivia was running out of time。
旁白:孔塞洛的政党的确在选举中获得了胜利,他出任计划部部长,他告诉总统,###的时间是很有限的。
JUAN CARIAGA: We told him; ";You have 90 days before Bolivia's hyperinflation bees the highest inflation in world history。"; So he told us; ";Okay; you have 20 days; you have to start working now。";
胡安。卡里加(Juan Cariaga):我们告诉他,“再过90天,###的通货膨胀率就要变成历史上最高的恶性通货膨胀率了,”他告诉我们,“好吧,我给你们20天的时间,你们必须从现在起就开始工作。”
GONZALO SANCHEZ DE LOZADA: There was a big discussion whether you could stop a hyperinflation or an inflation period by taking gradualist steps。 In this Jeff Sachs was influential。 He said: ";All this gradualist stuff just doesn't work。 When it really gets out of control you've got to stop it; like a medicine。 You've got to take some radical steps; otherwise your patient is going to die。";
孔塞洛。桑切斯。洛塞塔(Gonzalo Sanchez De Lozada):对于能否采用一个渐进的步骤来终止恶性通货膨胀或一般的通货膨胀的问题,我们进行了大规模的讨论。在这方面,杰裴里。萨克斯(Jeffrey Sachs)是很有影响力的,他说:“所有这些渐进的措施都是无用的,当事情真的无法控制时,你必须制止它,像打针吃药一样,你必须采用一些激进的措施,否则你的病人便会死去。”
NARRATOR: To avoid leaks; they worked at home。 Every few days; Goni reported to the president。
旁白:为防止出现纰漏,他们都在家中工作。每隔几天,孔塞洛就要向总统汇报一次。
GONZALO SANCHEZ DE LOZADA: We said: ";Look; boys; you've got one chance。 And remember; as Machiavelli said; 'It's all the bad news